Flood Crest Estimates Calculator- (Beta version)

In 2012 the US Geological Survey discontinued operation of the Middletown gauge due to federal funding reductions. In order to determine possible crest levels during a flooding event, this calculator provides an estimate based on 46 years of comparisons between Hartford high water crests and Middletown high water crests. Enter the Hartford actual or predicted high water crest and press submit to calculate the prediction for Middletown. Use the following link to find the current and future river levels in Hartford.

Connecticut River- Hartford Gauge

Hartford Gauge Predicted Crest or Actual Crest- feet.

Estimated Flood Crest
The estimated crest in Middletown is between 0.0 feet and 3.5 feet.

Based on an Hartford crest of feet.

On average a predicted crest of over 20 feet will crest in Middletown 12 hours after the crest in Hartford.
On average a predicted crest between 16 and 20 feet will crest in Middletown 8 hours after the crest in Hartford.
On average a predicted crest between 8 and 16 20 feet will crest in Middletown 21 hours after the crest in Hartford.
On average a predicted crest of less than 8 feet will crest in Middletown 28 hours after the crest in Hartford.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

The estimations in the calculator are based on the assumptions from past flood crest data and using bivariate Regression. The above calculator estimates the possible crest in Middletown using the following formulas:

Hartford crests greater than 28 feet: Middletown = (1.0553(Hartford) + -11.5273) error of 0.3479
Hartford crests greater than 24 feet and less than 28 feet: Middletown = (0.9069(Hartford) + -6.92428) error of 0.3694
Hartford crests greater than 16 feet and less than 24 feet: Middletown = (0.8576(Hartford) + -5.78117) error of 0.4511
Hartford crests greater than 8 feet and less than 16 feet: Middletown = (0.6432(Hartford) + -1.94808) error of 0.4656
Hartford crests less than 8 feet: Middletown = 0.0 - 3.5 feet

Hartford                   Middletown
Crest                       Crest
37.6 ft- 03/21/36     28.2 ft- 03/21/36
35.4 ft- 09/23/38     25.75 ft- 09/24/38
30.74 ft- 06/01/84   21.27 ft- 06/02/84
30.6 ft- 08/20/55     20.44 ft- 08/20/55
27.6 ft- 04/07/60     18.69 ft- 04/07/60
25.6 ft- 04/08/87     16.9 ft- 04/08/87
25.52 ft- 01/02/49   16.7 ft- 01/02/49
25 ft- 03/29/53        16.68 ft- 03/30/53
24.78 ft- 08/31/11   15.5 ft- 08/31/11
24.52 ft- 03/24/48   16.05 ft- 03/04/48
23.38 ft- 04/18/07   14.93 ft- 04/19/07
23.04 ft- 03/16/77   13.7 ft- 03/16/77
22.47 ft- 04/04/76   13.5 ft- 04/04/76
22.2 ft- 06/04/52     13.4 ft- 06/04/52
22.1 ft- 04/25/58     13.76 ft- 04/25/58
22.06 ft- 04/02/51   13.62 ft- 04/02/51
22.04 ft- 04/05/05   13.45 ft- 04/06/05
21.64 ft- 04/02/98   12.6 ft- 04/02/98
21.57 ft- 03/08/79   12.3 ft- 03/09/79
21.56 ft- 04/18/96   12.98 ft- 04/19/96
21.56 ft- 12/27/81   12.7 ft- 12/27/81
21.55 ft- 09/09/11   13.02 ft- 09/10/11
21.29 ft- 04/01/10   12.96 ft- 04/02/10
21 ft- 12/17/83        11.7 ft- 12/17/83
20.99 ft- 04/22/82   11.5 ft- 04/21/82
20.94 ft- 04/14/93   11.82 ft- 04/19/93
20.9 ft- 10/10/05     11.91 ft- 10/11/05
20.9 ft- 05/14/96     11.6 ft- 05/14/96
20.72 ft- 10/17/05   12.26 ft- 10/17/05
20.7 ft- 04/06/59     12.15 ft- 04/06/59
20.7 ft- 01/29/96     11.7 ft- 01/30/96
20.4 ft- 10/27/05     11.82 ft- 10/28/05
20.3 ft- 04/14/47     11.79 ft- 04/15/47
20.16 ft- 04/18/11   12.04 ft- 04/19/11
19.95 ft- 10/31/03   11.45 ft- 11/01/03
19.72 ft- 10/22/75   10.87 ft- 10/22/75
19.42 ft- 03/25/10   11.11 ft- 03/26/10
19.41 ft- 03/09/11   11.03 ft- 03/09/11
19.2 ft- 01/11/98     9 ft- 01/11/98
19.06 ft- 04/12/80   10.4 ft- 04/12/80
18.95 ft- 04/15/08   10.66 ft- 04/16/08
18.94 ft- 12/14/08   10.55 ft- 12/14/08
18.88 ft- 04/07/50   10.06 ft- 04/07/50
18.87 ft- 03/11/08   9.96 ft- 03/11/08
18.8 ft- 04/20/54     10.21 ft- 04/20/54
18.76 ft- 04/08/89   10.4 ft- 04/09/89
18.6 ft- 12/04/96     9.4 ft- 12/02/96
18.2 ft- 04/10/97     9.3 ft- 04/10/97
17.86 ft- 04/07/74   9.2 ft- 04/08/74
17.84 ft- 05/22/06   9.87 ft- 05/22/06
17.8 ft- 04/25/61     9.35 ft- 04/26/61
17.78 ft- 03/13/11   9.69 ft- 03/14/11
17.51 ft- 04/26/05   9.8 ft- 04/27/05
17.4 ft- 03/24/99     8.7 ft- 03/25/99
17.36 ft- 05/02/08   9.52 ft- 05/02/08
17.3 ft- 06/18/98     9 ft- 06/18/98
17.2 ft- 09/19/99     8.8 ft- 09/19/99
17.13 ft- 05/16/06   9.61 ft- 05/17/06
17.1 ft- 04/21/97     8.6 ft- 04/22/97
17.08 ft- 05/01/11   9.31 ft- 05/02/11
16.93 ft- 03/21/11   9.19 ft- 03/21/11
16.78 ft- 04/06/09   9.27 ft- 04/07/09
16.55 ft- 01/11/78   8.1 ft- 01/28/78
16.54 ft- 04/22/08   8.8 ft- 04/22/08
15.9 ft- 11/15/95     8.3 ft- 11/15/95

Incidents of Flood Crests by Month
Month # Above 8ft % Above 8ft # Above 16ft % Above 16ft # Above 24ft % Above 24ft
January 4 6% 1 10% 0 0%
February 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
March 11 17% 3 30% 1 50%
April 27 42% 2 20% 0 0%
May 5 8% 0 0% 0 0%
June 3 5% 1 10% 0 0%
July 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
August 2 3% 2 20% 0 0%
September 3 5% 1 10% 1 50%
October 4 6% 0 0% 0 0%
November 2 3% 0 0% 0 0%
December 4 6% 0 0% 0 0%

Percent Likelihood of High Flood Crests by Month, based on historical occurence
Month % Above 8ft % Above 16ft % Above 24ft
January 5% 1% 0%
February 0% 0% 0%
March 15% 4% 1%
April 36% 3% 0%
May 7% 0% 0%
June 4% 1% 0%
July 0% 0% 0%
August 3% 3% 0%
September 4% 1% 1%%
October 5% 0% 0%
November 3% 0% 0%
December 5% 0% 0%